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Crimean crisis and its impact on containerized cargo traffic of Ukraine

Abstracting from political assessments of the events occurred in the Crimea in early 2014, Informall BG have analyzed container cargo traffic, processed by Ukrainian terminals, which was directed to consignees or shipped by shippers based in the Crimea. Based on these results, we tried to make an economic assessment of this traffic and its impact on overall container cargo traffic of Ukraine.

imported_cargo_trafficHaving analyzed the dynamics of imported containerized cargo traffic of 2013, which was delivered to consignees in the Crimea through Ukrainian ports, we have found out that during 2013 monthly volume delivered to the peninsula was from 388 to 2410 TEU.

In general we can see an undulating dynamics of imported containerized cargo traffic of Crimean consignees, which can be explained by seasonality. A strong increase of traffic in March is related to the preparation for the holiday season in Crimea, as evidenced by the structure of imported products – almost 40% of imports – food stuff and24% of imports – equipment (including trading and refrigeration equipment).

ukraine_cargo_containers

As for dynamics of the export containerized cargo traffic, generated by shippers based in the Crimea, we can see that it is quite stable and ranged from 201 to 507 TEU. Regarding the structure of the export containerized cargo traffic – almost 77% of it was titanium dioxide, shipped by PJSC “Crimea Titan”, and 9% of it was soda ash, shipped by PJSC “Crimean Soda Plant”.

The total volume of Crimean import and export reached 10405 TEU and 3430 TEU respectively. In 2013 the total volume of laden import of Ukraine reached 377230 TEU and laden export – 257061 TEU. Thus, in case of final loss of the Crimea and its containerized cargo traffic, the Ukraine may lose 2,76% of laden imported containerized cargo traffic and 1,33% of laden exported containerized cargo traffic or 2,18% of total laden containerized cargo traffic.

In order to evaluate the short-received revenues of Ukrainian container terminals in connection with the loss of the Crimea and its containerized cargo traffic,considering the level of THC flat rate and above mentioned cargo traffic, we can find out that Ukrainian terminals will lose about $1,7 million(excluding VAT).

* Informall Business Group – investment & consulting group, operating and researching in the field of transport in Europe and Central Asia.

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